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The latest Bet Better model pick for Corey Wagner is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 62%, edge +8.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Corey Wagner

Fremantle

+8.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -161 (1.62) · $100→$162
+8.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
3.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.6% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap +8.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks70.6%59.0%61.7%1.69+8.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Corey Wagner Over 2.5 Marks (-161)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Corey Wagner has been really impressive lately, showing strong skills with a lot of marks. Our numbers say he's likely to grab over 2.5 marks in this game against the Geelong Cats. He's been performing well, with solid stats that suggest he can keep this up at Optus Stadium. One risk to think about is how close the teams are, which could create tight contests for the ball. Even with that, Wagner has been in great form, and it seems like a good bet for him to reach this mark. Let's see if he can do it!

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Pick History & Track Record

Corey Wagner's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Marks 2.5

Corey Wagner's marks line is 2.5.

Disposals 13.5

Corey Wagner's disposals line is 13.5.

Season averages (2024)

Corey Wagner averaged 15.9 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

15.9
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.0
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Corey Wagner has cleared 10.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.5100%
o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o14.590%
o15.560%
o17.540%
o18.530%
o19.520%
o21.510%
o22.510%
o24.510%
o25.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Corey Wagner is averaging 15.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

15.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Corey Wagner recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide19033
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13011
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats23063
4 Aug 24Essendon16022
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12031
21 Jul 24Melbourne17011
13 Jul 24Hawthorn17073
6 Jul 24Richmond21083
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans210101
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS15011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Corey Wagner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Corey Wagner is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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