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The latest Bet Better model pick for Cooper Lord is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 72%, edge +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Cooper Lord

Carlton

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+0.6% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
19.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.1% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +0.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.1%58.6%72.5%1.71+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Cooper Lord Over 16.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

At the MCG, Cooper Lord has a solid chance to grab over 16.5 disposals against Geelong Cats. Carlton has been strong lately, winning 8 of their last 10 games, and they usually control the ball better, winning contested possessions by nearly 9 a game. This means they often have the footy in their hands, giving Lord more opportunities to rack up those disposals. While Geelong can be tricky, they have conceded an average of 84.3 points per match, which suggests they can be scored on. The main risk here is that Geelong's defense can sometimes tighten up, making it tougher for players like Lord to get those numbers. Still, with Carlton's current form, it feels like a good bet for him to go over 16.5 disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17avg disposals recent
Season best19
Disposals last 2avg 17 · hi 19 · lo 15
1519

Cooper Lord has a disposals high of 19 in AFL.

TacklesSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Cooper Lord - AFL Tackles market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Tackles — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Tackles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Cooper Lord (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cooper Lord is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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