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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor Nash is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 67%, edge +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Conor Nash

Hawthorn

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+6.7% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
20.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.3% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +6.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.3%66.7%1.36+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Conor Nash (Hawthorn) Over 17.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Conor Nash hitting the Over 17.5 disposals mark against Port Adelaide, the numbers paint a clear picture. In his last five home games, Nash has been a midfield force, averaging a solid 19.2 disposals. His recent form shows he's been consistently involved, with a strong contested possession average of 9 per game. Facing Port Adelaide, he's even more likely to shine, boasting an average of 13.5 disposals in their previous encounters. Nash's ability to read the play and cover the ground effectively, averaging 203.4 meters gained at home, gives him a great chance to surpass the 17.5 line. With a hit rate of 8/11 in recent home games and 13/17 overall, Nash is a reliable bet to continue his impressive disposal numbers on familiar turf.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Conor Nash averaged 18.9 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.5 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

18.9
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.5
Marks
5.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Conor Nash recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide19029
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs16026
24 Aug 24North Melbourne12003
18 Aug 24Richmond13025
11 Aug 24Carlton25084
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS20003
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows18028
20 Jul 24Collingwood29008
13 Jul 24Fremantle21032
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats17043
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Conor Nash (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor Nash is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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