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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Budarick is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 69%, implied 67%, edge +14.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL

Connor Budarick

Western Bulldogs

+14.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+14.9% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
4.9 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.6% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +14.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks81.6%69.3%66.7%1.44+14.9%

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AI Analysis

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Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Connor Budarick Over 2.5 Marks (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Connor Budarick to get over 2.5 marks are sitting at -200, which shows the bookies think it's a solid bet. Our numbers back this up, as Budarick has been getting more than double the usual amount of bounces and contested marks lately. This suggests he's involved a lot in the game, which is great for his chances of hitting that mark. However, the risk here is that the Western Bulldogs can be tough opponents, so Budarick will need to keep up his recent form. If he struggles to find space, it could affect his numbers. Still, everything points to him being a strong choice to get over 2.5 marks in this matchup at the Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Connor Budarick averaged 15.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.5 marks per game across 8 games in 2024.

15.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.5
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Connor Budarick recorded 14 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond14073
17 Aug 24Melbourne16063
10 Aug 24Essendon18061
20 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16005
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide10032
24 Mar 24Western Bulldogs18060
16 Mar 24Adelaide Crows7003
9 Mar 24Richmond21081
26 Aug 23North Melbourne19063
19 Aug 23Carlton16042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 2.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 1.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 9.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Budarick is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.9% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 5 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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