Christian Moraes (Port Adelaide) Over 11.5 Disposals (-238)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Moraes is a reliable volume getter who comfortably clears this line on recent form. His L5 away average sits at 13.4 disposals — nearly two clear of the 11.5 mark — and his record against St Kilda reinforces that, averaging 14.0 in the last five head-to-head meetings. The model projects 14.6 disposals, generating a 2.7% edge against the implied 70.4% probability baked into the $1.42 price. That's not a massive overlay, but it's a genuine one supported by consistent underlying numbers.
What gives the case texture is how he accumulates. Across his L5 away games, Moraes is averaging 9.0 uncontested possessions and 142.8 metres gained — he finds the ball in space and moves it efficiently at 75.0%. The current hit streak sitting at zero is worth noting, but with a floor this comfortably above the line and the model aligned, the edge holds up.