Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Cameron is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 71%, edge +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:39AM UTC
AFL
Charlie Cameron
Brisbane Lions
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+4.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions
@
Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
75 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 75.0% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +4.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 75.0% | 61.7% | 70.9% | 1.62 | +4.1% |
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Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-244)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cameron's disposal numbers against Sydney are the standout figure here. In his last five away trips to face the Swans, he's averaged 11.7 disposals — well clear of this 9.5 line — and his broader L5 head-to-head average sits at 10.6. The model projects 11.9 disposals, a 2.4-touch buffer over the line that generates a 4.1% edge against the implied 70.9% probability baked into the $1.41 price.
The concern with Cameron away is real — his L5 away average of 8.4 disposals sits below the line — but the Sydney matchup clearly suits him, and his overall L5 form tells a better story at 12.8 disposals per game. He's hit this line in three straight and is riding a three-game overall streak. At a line this low for a forward who kicks 6.2 times per away game, the model's edge is worth backing.
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Season averages (2024)
Charlie Cameron averaged 10.7 disposals, 1.6 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Charlie Cameron has cleared 9.5 disposals in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o9.560%
o10.560%
o11.540%
o12.520%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Charlie Cameron is averaging 11.2 disposals per game over his last 5 and 13.4 in home games, including his recent form against Adelaide Crows.
12.4
Disp · vs Adelaide Crows
2.4
Goals · vs Adelaide Crows
Recent game log
In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Charlie Cameron recorded 14 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 28 Sep 24 | Sydney Swans | 14 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| 21 Sep 24 | Geelong Cats | 12 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 Sep 24 | GWS GIANTS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 Sep 24 | Carlton | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Essendon | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 17 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| 4 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Sydney Swans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Cameron is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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