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The latest Bet Better model pick for Callum Wilkie is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 53%, edge +18.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:21AM UTC
AFL

Callum Wilkie

St Kilda

+18.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
+18.5% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
20.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.1% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +18.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.1%—52.6%1.41+18.5%

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AI Analysis

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Callum Wilkie (St Kilda) Under 23.5 Disposals (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Callum Wilkie and the under 23.5 disposals prop bet against the Geelong Cats, the stats paint a clear picture. Wilkie's recent performances away from home show an average of 18.6 disposals over the last five games, falling short of the line. Facing Geelong, his historical average dips even further to 13.5 disposals. Despite his solid form, with an impressive 80.9% disposal efficiency and 302.8 meters gained, Wilkie might struggle to hit the mark against a tough Geelong side. With a hit rate of 4 out of 5 in away games and a current hit streak of 1, the under looks like the smart play here. Bet with confidence on Wilkie to come up just short in this clash at GMHBA Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Callum Wilkie averaged 17.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 7.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

17.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
7.7
Marks
1.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Callum Wilkie recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton11020
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats280153
11 Aug 24Richmond230112
4 Aug 24Brisbane Lions15082
27 Jul 24Essendon210113
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles180110
13 Jul 24Adelaide Crows14033
7 Jul 24Sydney Swans260144
30 Jun 24Port Adelaide25050
14 Jun 24Brisbane Lions18080
Quick answers:How many disposals does Callum Wilkie average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 23.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 23.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Callum Wilkie (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Callum Wilkie is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.5% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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