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The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Windsor is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 70%, edge +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Caleb Windsor

Melbourne

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+4.0% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
15.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.4% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +4.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.4%54.2%70.4%1.84+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Caleb Windsor (Melbourne) Over 12.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Caleb Windsor, the numbers paint a clear picture for this weekend's clash at the MCG. Over his last five home games, the man has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 14.6 disposals per game. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically tallied around 19.7 disposals against, the stage is set for him to shine. What's more, in his recent home fixtures, Windsor has been in fine form, hitting an average of 14.6 disposals per game, comfortably surpassing the 12.5 line on offer. With a current hit streak of three games at home, he's in a groove that's hard to ignore. Considering his consistent ball-winning ability and the favorable matchup, backing Windsor to go over 12.5 disposals is a smart play for punters looking to snag some value in this AFL showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Caleb Windsor averaged 14.5 disposals, 0.4 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

14.5
Disposals
0.4
Goals
3.0
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (27 Jul 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Caleb Windsor recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS6044
21 Jul 24Fremantle15152
13 Jul 24Essendon18111
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles25175
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions16012
22 Jun 24North Melbourne10006
10 Jun 24Collingwood21072
2 Jun 24Fremantle9022
26 May 24St Kilda8030
19 May 24West Coast Eagles13111
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Windsor (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Windsor is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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