Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Serong is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 80%, edge +4.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL
Caleb Serong
Fremantle
Latest Model Pick
Marks
Over 1.5
-400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+4.2% Edge
Geelong Cats
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
84 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 84.2% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +4.2%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Marks | 84.2% | — | 80.0% | 1.19 | +4.2% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 0/5 |
| Last 10 games | 0/10 |
See his full recent form
Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.
Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime
Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (-400)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Over 1.5 player_marks_over. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Caleb Serong's lines for Fri 11 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Marks 1.5
Caleb Serong's marks line is 1.5.
Season averages (2024)
Caleb Serong averaged 29.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.9 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Caleb Serong has cleared 17.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o17.590%
o18.590%
o20.570%
o22.560%
o24.550%
o26.540%
o28.520%
o30.510%
o32.50%
o34.50%
o36.50%
o38.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Caleb Serong is averaging 22.0 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Caleb Serong recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 19 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 17 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 24 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 22 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Essendon | 32 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 27 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 32 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Melbourne | 36 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 22 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Richmond | 27 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 23 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 29 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
See the complete track record
Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.
Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime
Caleb Serong (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Serong is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.2% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.