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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brad Close is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 64%, edge +11.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:37AM UTC
AFL

Brad Close

Geelong Cats

+11.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -175 (1.57) · $100→$157
+11.0% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
2.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.7% · the book's price implies 63.7% · gap +11.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks74.7%62.7%63.7%1.60+11.0%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Brad Close Over 1.5 Marks (-175)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Brad Close has a solid shot at getting over 1.5 marks in this game against Carlton. The Cats have been pretty good at getting the ball inside 50, which should give Close plenty of chances to make those marks. Plus, Carlton has been a bit weaker in their defensive positions lately, allowing more space for players like Close to shine. However, there is a risk that Geelong's contested ball numbers are pretty even, meaning Close might not get as many opportunities as you'd hope. Still, with the way he's been performing and the chances he'll likely get at the MCG, the odds look promising for him to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brad Close averaged 12.7 disposals, 1.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

12.7
Disposals
1.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Brad Close has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.560%
o11.550%
o12.540%
o13.540%
o14.540%
o15.540%
o16.520%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Brad Close is averaging 11.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

11.8
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brad Close recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19022
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15020
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11031
17 Aug 24St Kilda9031
10 Aug 24Fremantle9010
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows9012
27 Jul 24North Melbourne14154
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs11127
12 Jul 24Collingwood16161
6 Jul 24Hawthorn14422
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Marks 1.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Brad Close (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brad Close is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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