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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 3.5 on Clearances.
On Clearances, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 67%, implied 78%, edge +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Smith

Geelong Cats

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Clearances Over 3.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+2.0% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
5.7 Clearances
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.1% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +2.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Clearances80.1%67.2%78.1%1.49+2.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Bailey Smith Over 3.5 Clearances (-357)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Bailey Smith to get over 3.5 clearances tonight, he needs to find ways to break free and gather the ball. Our numbers show he has been performing really well lately, with a strong average on clearances. Plus, the stats indicate that he usually handles the pressure well, which should help him navigate the Geelong Cats' defense. However, Geelong is known to be a tough opponent, so it won't be a walk in the park for him. That said, Smith's recent form and the way he's been playing suggest he has a solid chance to hit that number. If he stays focused and keeps his game up, he should be able to cross that line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Bailey Smith's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Clearances 3.5
How many disposals does Bailey Smith average?

Bailey Smith's clearances line is 3.5.

Marks 2.5
How many disposals does Bailey Smith average?

Bailey Smith's marks line is 2.5.

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Bailey Smith has cleared 23.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o23.5100%
o24.5100%
o25.5100%
o27.580%
o28.560%
o30.560%
o31.550%
o32.540%
o34.530%
o35.520%
o37.520%
o38.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Bailey Smith is averaging 33.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

33.4
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall
Quick answers:How many disposals does Bailey Smith average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 33.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 26.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 25.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 3.5 on Clearances. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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