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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Dale is Over 4.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 60%, edge +14.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Dale

Western Bulldogs

+14.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 4.5 -147 (1.68) · $100→$168
+14.3% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
5.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.9% · the book's price implies 59.5% · gap +14.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks73.9%61.9%59.5%1.62+14.3%

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AI Analysis

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Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Bailey Dale Over 4.5 Marks (-147)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Dale has been showing some solid form lately, with a chance to grab over 4.5 marks against the Adelaide Crows. His recent numbers are looking good, especially with a higher than usual rate of contested marks and target goals. This suggests he's getting plenty of opportunities to shine on the field. The Crows are no slouches, and they can make it tough for any player. With their ability to limit marks, there's a risk that Dale might not get as many chances as we hope. Still, the signs point to him being able to hit that mark, making this a promising bet for the game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Bailey Dale averaged 24.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

24.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.1
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Bailey Dale recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn20041
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS27132
18 Aug 24North Melbourne23083
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows14020
2 Aug 24Melbourne34080
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans25081
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats23061
13 Jul 24Carlton31141
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide23040
29 Jun 24North Melbourne25042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Kicks Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Dale is Over 4.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.3% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 5 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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