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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Arthur Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 71%, edge +3.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:36AM UTC
AFL

Arthur Jones

Western Bulldogs

+3.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+3.2% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 11°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
1.3 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.1% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +3.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.1%62.0%70.9%1.61+3.2%

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AI Analysis

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Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood clash, Arthur Jones stands out as a prime contender. Over his last 5 home games, Jones has been a consistent threat in front of goal, averaging 1 goal per game. His recent form under the home floodlights has been impressive, with a solid 36.7% goal accuracy and an average of 2.6 shots at goal per game. Moreover, Jones has shown a knack for getting involved in scoring plays, with an average of 3.4 score involvements in his last 5 home matches. Facing Collingwood, against whom he has averaged 0.5 goals in recent matchups, Jones is well-positioned to continue his scoring streak. With a strong hit rate of 9 goals in his last 10 home games and a current hit streak of 1, Jones is a solid pick to go Over 0.5 goals in this high-stakes showdown at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Arthur Jones recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS8140
13 Aug 23Hawthorn3013
4 Aug 23Richmond4010
9 Jun 23Port Adelaide0006
3 Jun 23Geelong Cats7022
27 May 23Gold Coast SUNS13024
20 May 23Adelaide Crows6003
13 May 23Carlton14145
6 May 23GWS GIANTS12212
29 Apr 23Hawthorn12131
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Goals Pending
25 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Western Bulldogs Goals Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Goals Pending

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About This Player

Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Arthur Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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