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The latest Bet Better model pick for Adam Cerra is Under 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 53%, edge +18.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:49AM UTC
AFL

Adam Cerra

Carlton

+18.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 21.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+18.9% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
18.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.1% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +18.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.1%62.7%53.2%2.01+18.9%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Adam Cerra Under 21.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adam Cerra has been racking up disposals lately, but the stats suggest he might not hit the mark in this game. Geelong Cats allow teams to score a good amount and have been strong defensively, giving up only 84.3 points a match lately. Plus, they create plenty of chances themselves, getting it inside 50 more than Carlton does. While Cerra has shown great form, the matchup looks tricky. Carlton wins the contested ball, but Geelong is known for holding opponents back. With Cerra's numbers and the pressure he'll face, betting on him to get under 21.5 disposals feels like a solid choice. Just remember, nothing is guaranteed!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Adam Cerra averaged 19.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 2.5 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

19.4
Disposals
0.3
Goals
2.5
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Adam Cerra recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions17053
3 Aug 24Collingwood8012
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide15021
21 Jul 24North Melbourne21020
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19027
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS21102
30 Jun 24Richmond23033
9 May 24Melbourne21024
3 May 24Collingwood21035
6 Apr 24Fremantle24133
Quick answers:How many disposals does Adam Cerra average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Adam Cerra (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adam Cerra is Under 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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