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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Under 14.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 63%, implied 51%, edge +12.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current WNBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
WNBA

Alyssa Thomas

WNBA

+12.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 14.5 -103 (1.97) · $100→$197
+12.5% Edge
Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury
PHX Arena, Phoenix · Indoor
Sun 30 Aug, 2:00AM
The recordWhen our formula calls wnba totals unders: 1,718 of 2,295 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
63 in 100
Predicted
13.2 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 63.3% · the book's price implies 50.8% · gap +12.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points63.3%—50.8%2.09+12.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Phoenix Mercury vs Toronto Tempo: Alyssa Thomas Under 14.5 Points (-103)

Odds available at betonlineag at time of publishing

The odds for Alyssa Thomas to score under 14.5 points look solid. She has been pretty inconsistent lately, with points ranging from 10 to 25 in her last ten games. The Phoenix Mercury tend to struggle with defense, letting opponents grab a lot of rebounds and shoot a bunch of three-pointers, but Thomas might have a tough time finding her rhythm today. Both teams aren't in great form, with Toronto winning only once in their last ten games and often trailing by nearly ten points in their recent matchups. The real risk here is that Thomas might have a breakout game, but based on her recent performance, it feels like this line is set pretty well.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (33 picks) 63.6% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Quick answers:How many points does Alyssa Thomas average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Points 14.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Ast 23.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Reb+Ast 32.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Reb — — — Pending
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Pts+Reb+Ast — — — Pending
30 Aug 26 Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury Rebounds (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Alyssa Thomas is tracked by the Bet Better model for WNBA player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 63.6% on tracked Alyssa Thomas picks. The latest model pick for Alyssa Thomas is Under 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.5% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury on Sunday 30 August at PHX Arena, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your WNBA betting strategy.

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