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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Long is Over 1.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 13 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 13%, implied 4%, edge +8.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:50AM UTC
Soccer

Aaron Long

New York Red Bulls

+8.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots Over 1.5 +2200 (23.00) · $100→$2,300
+8.4% Edge
Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Sat 1 Aug, 11:30PM
The recordWhen our formula calls soccer draw no bet calls: 57 of 117 right
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
13 in 100
Predicted
0.3 Shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 12.8% · the book's price implies 4.3% · gap +8.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots12.8%4.3%7.82+8.4%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Long (Los Angeles FC) Over 1.5 Shots (+2200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Los Angeles FC heads to Vancouver, all eyes should be on Aaron Long to break out of his shell and go for over 1.5 total shots. While his recent form might seem modest—averaging just 0.2 shots per game—there’s an intriguing narrative brewing. Long’s been steadily gaining confidence, showing a hit streak in recent outings. Playing away from home, he’s likely to push forward, especially against a Vancouver side that could leave gaps in their defense. The matchup presents an opportunity for Long to exploit those spaces, particularly with LAFC needing to maintain their attacking momentum. With a model prediction suggesting a solid edge for him, it’s reasonable to expect that Long could seize this chance to ramp up his shot tally. He’s finding form at just the right time, and when the stakes are high, sometimes players can surprise us in ways the stats don’t fully reveal.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC Shots Pending
01 Aug 26 Los Angeles FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC Shots Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Long is Over 1.5 on Shots. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC on Saturday 1 August. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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