Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam LaPorta is Over 41.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 68%, implied 53%, edge +15.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards
Over 41.5
-111 (1.90) · $100→$190
+15.8% Edge
New Orleans Saints
@
Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
LaPorta (hip) is not listed on the Lions' Week 1 injury report Wednesday, Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site reports.
updated Sep 9, 8:08PM UTC
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How often this wins
68 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 68.5% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +15.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards | 68.5% | 68.5% | 52.6% | 2.01 | +15.8% |
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Sam LaPorta (DET) Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Detroit Lions play New Orleans Saints in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sam LaPorta (DET) Over 41.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Sam LaPorta's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards 41.5
-114 best over price · 5 books
Sam LaPorta's receiving yards line is 41.5, best over price -114 across 5 books.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Sam LaPorta's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5
Sam LaPorta's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Sam LaPorta's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards 42.5
-114 best over price · 5 books
Sam LaPorta's receiving yards line is 42.5, best over price -114 across 5 books.
Receptions (Alt) 8.5
Sam LaPorta's receptions (alt) line is 8.5.
Receptions (Alt) 7.5
Sam LaPorta's receptions (alt) line is 7.5.
Receptions (Alt) 6.5
Sam LaPorta's receptions (alt) line is 6.5.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · New Orleans SaintsO 24.5 -333 24.5posted line · receiving yds
Sam LaPorta has a live NFL receiving yards market for New Orleans Saints: over 24.5 receiving yds priced at -333.
ReceptionsNext game · New Orleans SaintsO 4.5 +136 4.5posted line · receptions
Sam LaPorta has a live NFL receptions market for New Orleans Saints: over 4.5 receptions priced at +136.
Anytime TD9 lines trackedNo line posted
48%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked9
Sam LaPorta's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 9 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 48%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Sam LaPorta (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam LaPorta is Over 41.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.8% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions on Sunday 13 September at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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