Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 21.5 on Pass Completions.
On Pass Completions, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 58%, implied 50%, edge +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pass Completions
Under 21.5
+102 (2.02) · $100→$202
+8.6% Edge
Denver Broncos
@
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
Tue 15 Sep, 12:15AM
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid said Tuesday that Mahomes (knee) has a "pretty good chance" to start next Monday's season opener versus the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
updated Sep 8, 5:14PM UTC · 1d old
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How often this wins
58 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 58.1% · the book's price implies 49.5% · gap +8.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pass Completions | 58.1% | 58.1% | 49.5% | 2.13 | +8.6% |
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Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 21.5 Pass Completions (+102)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 21.5 Pass Completions. It was priced at +102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Patrick Mahomes's lines for Tue 15 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Pass Completions 21.5
Questionable
Patrick Mahomes's pass completions line is 21.5.
Pass Attempts 32.5
Questionable
Patrick Mahomes's pass attempts line is 32.5.
Pass + Rush Yards 248.5
Questionable
Patrick Mahomes's pass + rush yards line is 248.5.
Anytime TD
+650 best over price · 13 booksQuestionable
Patrick Mahomes's anytime td line is posted, best over price +650 across 13 books.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5
Questionable
Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 14.5
-114 best over price · 4 booksQuestionable
Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards (alt) line is 14.5, best over price -114 across 4 books.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 9.5
Questionable
Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 4.5
Questionable
Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards (alt) line is 4.5.
Betting angles
3 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Denver Broncos @ Kansas City ChiefsO 174.5 -435
174.5posted line · passing yds
Patrick Mahomes has a live NFL passing yards market for Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: over 174.5 passing yds priced at -435.
Anytime TDNext game · Denver Broncos @ Kansas City ChiefsAnytime TD +650
Patrick Mahomes has a live NFL anytime td market for Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs priced at +650.
Rushing YardsNext game · Denver Broncos @ Kansas City ChiefsO 24.5 +230 24.5posted line · rushing yds
Patrick Mahomes has a live NFL rushing yards market for Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: over 24.5 rushing yds priced at +230.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Patrick Mahomes (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Mahomes is Under 21.5 on Pass Completions. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs on Tuesday 15 September at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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