Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nico Collins is Over 29.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 98 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 98%, implied 92%, edge +7.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 29.5
-1111 (1.09) · $100→$109
+7.3% Edge
Buffalo Bills
@
Houston Texans
Houston · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Collins is the clear No. 1 wide receiver for the Texans heading into the regular season, but the pecking order at the position behind him is uncertain, as Xavier Hutchinson, Jaylin Noel (hamstring), Kayshon Boutte and Jared Wayne are vying for roles, while Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports that Tank Dell (knee) will begin the season on IR with a designation to return.
updated Sep 3, 4:35PM UTC · 6d old
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How often this wins
98 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 98.0% · the book's price implies 91.7% · gap +7.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 98.0% | 98.0% | 91.7% | 1.09 | +7.3% |
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Nico Collins (HOU) Over 29.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1111)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Houston Texans play Buffalo Bills in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Nico Collins (HOU) Over 29.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -1111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $10.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Nico Collins's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5
Nico Collins's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5
Nico Collins's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Receiving Yards 69.5
-114 best over price · 9 books
Nico Collins's receiving yards line is 69.5, best over price -114 across 9 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 49.5
Nico Collins's receiving yards (alt) line is 49.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5
Nico Collins's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Nico Collins's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Betting angles
1 market liveReceiving YardsNext game · Buffalo BillsO 39.5 -500 39.5posted line · receiving yds
Nico Collins has a live NFL receiving yards market for Buffalo Bills: over 39.5 receiving yds priced at -500.
Anytime TD6 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked6
Nico Collins's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 6 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Nico Collins (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nico Collins is Over 29.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans on Sunday 13 September at Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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