Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Jefferson is Over 11.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 6 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 6%, implied 5%, edge +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 11.5
+2000 (21.00) · $100→$2,100
+1.2% Edge
Green Bay Packers
@
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jefferson connected on a couple highlight-reel grabs from quarterback Kyler Murray during the Vikings' final training camp practice Aug. 26, Andrew Krammer of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
updated Sep 2, 6:12PM UTC · 7d old
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
6 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 6.0% · the book's price implies 4.8% · gap +1.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 21.00 | +1.2% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Justin Jefferson (MIN) Over 11.5 Player receptions alternate (+2000)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Justin Jefferson (MIN) Over 11.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +2000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $210 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Justin Jefferson's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions (Alt) 11.5
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 11.5.
Receptions (Alt) 10.5
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 10.5.
Receptions (Alt) 9.5
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 9.5.
Receptions (Alt) 8.5
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 8.5.
Receptions (Alt) 7.5
+115 best over price · 1 book
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 7.5, best over price +115 across 1 book.
Receptions (Alt) 6.5
+115 best over price · 1 book
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 6.5, best over price +115 across 1 book.
Receptions (Alt) 5.5
-145 best over price · 11 books
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 5.5, best over price -145 across 11 books.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
-145 best over price · 11 books
Justin Jefferson's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price -145 across 11 books.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceptionsNext game · Green Bay PackersO 6.5 +129 6.5posted line · receptions
Justin Jefferson has a live NFL receptions market for Green Bay Packers: over 6.5 receptions priced at +129.
Receiving YardsNext game · Green Bay PackersO 49.5 -345 49.5posted line · receiving yds
Justin Jefferson has a live NFL receiving yards market for Green Bay Packers: over 49.5 receiving yds priced at -345.
Anytime TD8 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked8
Justin Jefferson's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 8 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Justin Jefferson (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Jefferson is Over 11.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 13 September at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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