Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Downs is Over 6.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 28 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 28%, implied 17%, edge +11.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 6.5
+489 (5.89) · $100→$589
+11.0% Edge
Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Downs (calf) is not on the Colts' injury report.
updated Sep 9, 9:22PM UTC
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How often this wins
28 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 28.0% · the book's price implies 17.0% · gap +11.0%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 28.0% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 5.89 | +11.0% |
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Josh Downs (IND) Over 6.5 Player receptions alternate (+489)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Josh Downs (IND) Over 6.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +489 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $58.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Josh Downs's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions (Alt) 6.5
Josh Downs's receptions (alt) line is 6.5.
Receptions (Alt) 5.5
+125 best over price · 8 books
Josh Downs's receptions (alt) line is 5.5, best over price +125 across 8 books.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
+125 best over price · 8 books
Josh Downs's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price +125 across 8 books.
Receptions (Alt) 3.5
-164 best over price · 3 books
Josh Downs's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price -164 across 3 books.
Receptions (Alt) 2.5
-164 best over price · 3 books
Josh Downs's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price -164 across 3 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 44.5
-111 best over price · 6 books
Josh Downs's receiving yards (alt) line is 44.5, best over price -111 across 6 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5
Josh Downs's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5
Josh Downs's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Betting angles
3 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Baltimore RavensO 29.5 -263 29.5posted line · receiving yds
Josh Downs has a live NFL receiving yards market for Baltimore Ravens: over 29.5 receiving yds priced at -263.
ReceptionsNext game · Baltimore RavensO 4.5 +124 4.5posted line · receptions
Josh Downs has a live NFL receptions market for Baltimore Ravens: over 4.5 receptions priced at +124.
Anytime TDNext game · Baltimore RavensAnytime TD +290
Josh Downs has a live NFL anytime td market for Baltimore Ravens priced at +290.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Josh Downs (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Downs is Over 6.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.0% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 13 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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