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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for John Bates is Under 1.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 54%, edge +19.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 11, 3:13AM UTC
NFL

John Bates

WAS

+19.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receptions Under 1.5 -118 (1.85) · $100→$185
+19.0% Edge
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Washington · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Bates (hamstring) is not listed on the injury report for Wednesday's practice.
updated Sep 9, 11:39PM UTC · 1d old
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.1% · the book's price implies 54.1% · gap +19.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions73.1%54.1%1.37+19.0%

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AI Analysis

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John Bates (WAS) Under 1.5 Receptions (-118)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

This bet on John Bates for Under 1.5 in the 'player receptions' market is statistically supported by his recent performance and hit rate trending. Bates' home hit rate in the last 3 games is only 1/3, indicating he's not as effective at home. Despite his overall hit rate being 29/43, it is crucial to note that his current home hit streak is 0, suggesting he's in a slump when playing at home. His overall current hit streak is just 1, which doesn't pledge much confidence. Also, while he has a strong hit rate against Philadelphia (4/5 overall and 3/3 at home), these are based on small sample sizes and may not accurately reflect his current form. The model edge of 0.189970466813292 also suggests the under 1.5 outcome is more likely. Thus, based on these data, the under 1.5 receptions for Bates seems a reasonable bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked2

John Bates's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–29.5model over42%tips tracked4

John Bates's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

John Bates (WAS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Bates is Under 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.0% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders at Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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