Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Joe Burrow is Under 6.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +18.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards
Under 6.5
-114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+18.7% Edge
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Burrow said on teammate Ja'Marr Chase's (knee) podcast that the quarterback has high hopes for the Bengals in 2026 after the team's offseason personnel changes, Kevin Patra of NFL.com reports Thursday.
updated Sep 3, 3:51PM UTC · 6d old
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How often this wins
72 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 71.8% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +18.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards | 71.8% | 71.8% | 53.2% | 2.00 | +18.7% |
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Joe Burrow (CIN) Under 6.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Cincinnati Bengals play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Joe Burrow (CIN) Under 6.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Joe Burrow's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Yards 6.5
-112 best over price · 7 books
Joe Burrow's rushing yards line is 6.5, best over price -112 across 7 books.
Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5
Joe Burrow's passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Joe Burrow's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Touchdowns 2.5
Joe Burrow's passing touchdowns line is 2.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Joe Burrow's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 39.5
Joe Burrow's rushing yards (alt) line is 39.5.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Joe Burrow's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5
Joe Burrow's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.
Betting angles
2 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Tampa Bay BuccaneersO 174.5 -1429
174.5posted line · passing yds
Joe Burrow has a live NFL passing yards market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers: over 174.5 passing yds priced at -1429.
Rushing YardsNext game · Tampa Bay BuccaneersU 6.5 -114 6.5posted line · rushing yds
Joe Burrow has a live NFL rushing yards market for Tampa Bay Buccaneers: under 6.5 rushing yds priced at -114.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Joe Burrow (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Joe Burrow is Under 6.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 13 September at Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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