Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jared Goff is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 39%, edge +15.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 1.5
+157 (2.57) · $100→$257
+15.2% Edge
New Orleans Saints
@
Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Goff closed out training camp on a high note Thursday, notably leading the Lions on a 99-yard touchdown drive during the first series of practice, Tim Twentyman of the team's official site reports.
updated Sep 2, 3:20PM UTC · 7d old
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How often this wins
54 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 54.1% · the book's price implies 38.9% · gap +15.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 54.1% | 54.1% | 38.9% | 2.71 | +15.2% |
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Jared Goff (DET) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+157)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Detroit Lions play New Orleans Saints in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jared Goff (DET) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +157 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Jared Goff's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Jared Goff's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Pass Attempts 33.5
Jared Goff's pass attempts line is 33.5.
Pass Completions 23.5
Jared Goff's pass completions line is 23.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Jared Goff's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Interceptions Thrown (Alt) 1.5
Jared Goff's interceptions thrown (alt) line is 1.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5
Jared Goff's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5
Jared Goff's passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5
Jared Goff's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.
Betting angles
2 markets livePassing YardsNext game · New Orleans SaintsU 262.5 -112
262.5posted line · passing yds
Jared Goff has a live NFL passing yards market for New Orleans Saints: under 262.5 passing yds priced at -112.
Anytime TDNext game · New Orleans SaintsAnytime TD +1600
Jared Goff has a live NFL anytime td market for New Orleans Saints priced at +1600.
Rushing Yards6 lines trackedNo line posted 0.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–29.5model over46%tips tracked6
Jared Goff's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 6 times, typically around a 0.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jared Goff (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jared Goff is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.2% on this pick. Their next game is New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions on Sunday 13 September at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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