Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeVonta Smith is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 28 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 28%, implied 21%, edge +6.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 7.5
+368 (4.68) · $100→$468
+6.6% Edge
Washington Commanders
@
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
Our call on DeVonta Smith tonight: ●●● ●.● @ ●.●●1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Smith didn't make an appearance during the Eagles' three-game preseason slate.
updated Sep 4, 8:40PM UTC · 5d old
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How often this wins
28 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 27.9% · the book's price implies 21.4% · gap +6.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 27.9% | 27.9% | 21.4% | 4.68 | +6.6% |
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DeVonta Smith (PHI) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate (+368)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Philadelphia Eagles play Washington Commanders in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is DeVonta Smith (PHI) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +368 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $46.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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DeVonta Smith's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions (Alt) 7.5
+116 best over price · 13 books
DeVonta Smith's receptions (alt) line is 7.5, best over price +116 across 13 books.
Receptions (Alt) 6.5
+116 best over price · 13 books
DeVonta Smith's receptions (alt) line is 6.5, best over price +116 across 13 books.
Receptions (Alt) 5.5
+116 best over price · 13 books
DeVonta Smith's receptions (alt) line is 5.5, best over price +116 across 13 books.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
+116 best over price · 13 books
DeVonta Smith's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price +116 across 13 books.
Receptions (Alt) 3.5
+116 best over price · 13 books
DeVonta Smith's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price +116 across 13 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
DeVonta Smith's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards 66.5
-111 best over price · 7 books
DeVonta Smith's receiving yards line is 66.5, best over price -111 across 7 books.
Receiving Yards 65.5
-114 best over price · 4 books
DeVonta Smith's receiving yards line is 65.5, best over price -114 across 4 books.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Washington CommandersO 59.5 -161 59.5posted line · receiving yds
DeVonta Smith has a live NFL receiving yards market for Washington Commanders: over 59.5 receiving yds priced at -161.
ReceptionsNext game · Washington CommandersO 5.5 +107 5.5posted line · receptions
DeVonta Smith has a live NFL receptions market for Washington Commanders: over 5.5 receptions priced at +107.
Anytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2
DeVonta Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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DeVonta Smith (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeVonta Smith is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.6% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 13 September at Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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