Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 85%, implied 74%, edge +11.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Passing Yards (Alt)
Over 199.5
-278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+11.1% Edge
Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jones was crisp in practice throughout training camp, 107.5 The Fan reports.
updated Sep 1, 4:32PM UTC · 8d old
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How often this wins
85 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 84.6% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap +11.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Yards (Alt) | 84.6% | 84.6% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +11.1% |
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Daniel Jones (IND) Over 199.5 Player pass yds alternate (-278)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Daniel Jones (IND) Over 199.5 Player pass yds alternate. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Daniel Jones's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 199.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 189.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 179.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 179.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5
Daniel Jones's passing yards (alt) line is 174.5.
Passing Touchdowns (Alt) 3.5
Daniel Jones's passing touchdowns (alt) line is 3.5.
Passing Touchdowns (Alt) 2.5
Daniel Jones's passing touchdowns (alt) line is 2.5.
Passing Touchdowns (Alt) 1.5
Daniel Jones's passing touchdowns (alt) line is 1.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5
Daniel Jones's rushing yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Betting angles
3 markets livePassing YardsNext game · Baltimore RavensO 189.5 -357
189.5posted line · passing yds
Daniel Jones has a live NFL passing yards market for Baltimore Ravens: over 189.5 passing yds priced at -357.
Rushing YardsNext game · Baltimore RavensU 12.5 -118 12.5posted line · rushing yds
Daniel Jones has a live NFL rushing yards market for Baltimore Ravens: under 12.5 rushing yds priced at -118.
Anytime TDNext game · Baltimore RavensAnytime TD +500
Daniel Jones has a live NFL anytime td market for Baltimore Ravens priced at +500.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Daniel Jones (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Jones is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.1% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 13 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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