Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brashard Smith is Over 1.5 on Total Touchdowns.
On Total Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 2 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 2%, implied 1%, edge +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Total Touchdowns
Over 1.5
+9000 (91.00) · $100→$9,100
+1.2% Edge
Denver Broncos
@
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City · Indoor
Tue 15 Sep, 12:15AM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Smith is the third and final running back on the Chiefs' 53-man roster for the 2026 regular season, Matt McMullen of the team's official site reports.
updated Sep 5, 2:43PM UTC · 4d old
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
2 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 2.3% · the book's price implies 1.1% · gap +1.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Total Touchdowns | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 91.00 | +1.2% |
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Brashard Smith (KC) Over 1.5 Player tds over (+9000)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Brashard Smith (KC) Over 1.5 Player tds over. It was priced at +9000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $910 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Brashard Smith's lines for Tue 15 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Total Touchdowns 1.5
Brashard Smith's total touchdowns line is 1.5.
Last Touchdown Scorer
Brashard Smith's last touchdown scorer line is posted.
Anytime TD
+1000 best over price · 13 books
Brashard Smith's anytime td line is posted, best over price +1000 across 13 books.
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD8 lines trackedNo line posted
20%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked8
Brashard Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 8 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 20%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Brashard Smith (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brashard Smith is Over 1.5 on Total Touchdowns. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs on Tuesday 15 September at Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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