Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 9.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 99 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 99%, implied 93%, edge +7.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt)
Over 9.5
-1250 (1.08) · $100→$108
+7.2% Edge
Green Bay Packers
@
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
Our call on Aaron Jones tonight: ●●● ●.● @ ●.●●1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Jones and Jordan Mason are listed as co-starting running backs on the Vikings' unofficial depth chart following cut-down day Sunday, Rob Kleifield of the team's official site reports.
updated Sep 3, 12:48AM UTC · 7d old
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How often this wins
99 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 98.8% · the book's price implies 92.6% · gap +7.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards (Alt) | 98.8% | 98.8% | 92.6% | 1.08 | +7.2% |
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Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (-1250)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at -1250 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $10.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Aaron Jones's lines for Sun 13 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 9.5
Aaron Jones's rushing yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Rush + Rec Yards 47.5
Aaron Jones's rush + rec yards line is 47.5.
Receptions 2.5
-105 best over price · 9 books
Aaron Jones's receptions line is 2.5, best over price -105 across 9 books.
Receiving Yards 14.5
-108 best over price · 9 books
Aaron Jones's receiving yards line is 14.5, best over price -108 across 9 books.
Anytime TD
+170 best over price · 13 books
Aaron Jones's anytime td line is posted, best over price +170 across 13 books.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 5.5
Aaron Jones's rushing attempts (alt) line is 5.5.
Rushing Yards 29.5
-111 best over price · 8 books
Aaron Jones's rushing yards line is 29.5, best over price -111 across 8 books.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 9.5
Aaron Jones's rushing attempts (alt) line is 9.5.
Betting angles
4 markets liveRushing YardsNext game · Green Bay PackersO 19.5 -278 19.5posted line · rushing yds
Aaron Jones has a live NFL rushing yards market for Green Bay Packers: over 19.5 rushing yds priced at -278.
Receiving YardsNext game · Green Bay PackersU 14.5 -114 14.5posted line · receiving yds
Aaron Jones has a live NFL receiving yards market for Green Bay Packers: under 14.5 receiving yds priced at -114.
ReceptionsNext game · Green Bay PackersU 2.5 -110 2.5posted line · receptions
Aaron Jones has a live NFL receptions market for Green Bay Packers: under 2.5 receptions priced at -110.
Anytime TDNext game · Green Bay PackersAnytime TD +155
Aaron Jones has a live NFL anytime td market for Green Bay Packers priced at +155.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Aaron Jones (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Jones is Over 9.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.2% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 13 September at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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