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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Merrill is Over 10.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 53%, edge +25.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:22AM UTC
NBA

Sam Merrill

Cleveland Cavaliers

+25.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 10.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+25.2% Edge
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Mon 20 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
15.9 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.4% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +25.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs78.4%53.2%1.27+25.2%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Cavaliers gear up to face the Toronto Raptors, all eyes should be on Sam Merrill to eclipse that 10.5 points and rebounds mark. Playing at home, Merrill has recently found his groove, averaging 11 points and 2.4 rebounds over his last five home games. What's impressive is his consistency-hitting the over in three of his last four at home. The Raptors defense might struggle against him, as he's averaged nearly 6 points in their previous matchups, which hints at a favorable matchup. With the Cavaliers needing strong performances to secure a win, expect Merrill to step up. His recent form shows he's not just a role player; he's been contributing significantly, with an expected stat value of 15.94. Given the stakes and his track record, betting on Merrill to go over 10.5 feels like a smart play tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Sam Merrill — 2024-25 season averages

Over 79 games in the 2024-25 season, Sam Merrill averaged 7.0 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 19.8 minutes per game, shooting 40.3% from the field and 37.1% from three-point range.

7.0
PPG
2.2
RPG
1.5
APG
0.7
SPG
0.2
BPG
19.8
MPG
40.3%
FG%
37.1%
3P%

Sam Merrill — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Sam Merrill has played 19.4 minutes per game and started 40% of them.

19.4
MPG (L5)
6.8
PPG (L5)
40%
Started

Sam Merrill — home vs away scoring

At home Sam Merrill averages 7.1 points per game; on the road, 6.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

7.1
PPG at home
6.9
PPG on the road

Sam Merrill — scoring by opponent

Sam Merrill scores most against the IND, averaging 6.2 points per game in that matchup.

6.2
IND
5.9
ORL
4.9
BOS
4.6
MIA

Sam Merrill — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Sam Merrill has averaged 7.0 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
11 May@ IND14231
9 May@ IND20312
6 Mayvs IND261440
4 Mayvs IND18644
28 Apr@ MIA19911
26 Apr@ MIA19021
23 Aprvs MIA20641
20 Aprvs MIA24614
10 Apr@ IND291534
8 Aprvs CHI22923
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Merrill is Over 10.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.2% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday 20 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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