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The latest Bet Better model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 5.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 60%, edge +23.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:44AM UTC
NBA

Keldon Johnson

San Antonio Spurs

+23.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 5.5 -152 (1.66) · $100→$166
+23.4% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
11.2 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.6% · the book's price implies 60.2% · gap +23.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points83.6%—60.2%1.20+23.4%

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AI Analysis

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Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) Over 5.5 Points (-152)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the New York Knicks, Keldon Johnson stands poised for a breakout performance that makes the Over 5.5 points a tempting bet. Johnson has been a consistent contributor at home, hitting this mark in 15 of his last 19 games. He's averaged an impressive 9.6 points against the Knicks when playing in front of the San Antonio crowd, which is a significant leap from his overall average of just 3.6 against them. With the Spurs needing their offensive firepower and Johnson's current form suggesting an expected stat value of 11.17, it feels like a perfect storm for him to exceed that 5.5 threshold. Plus, with a solid hit rate of 13 out of 19 games overall, he's shown he can deliver when it counts. Expect Johnson to capitalize on this opportunity and help ignite the Spurs' offense.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Keldon Johnson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 77 games in the 2024-25 season, Keldon Johnson averaged 12.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 23.8 minutes per game, shooting 48.2% from the field and 31.8% from three-point range.

12.7
PPG
4.8
RPG
1.6
APG
0.6
SPG
0.3
BPG
23.8
MPG
48.2%
FG%
31.8%
3P%

Keldon Johnson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Keldon Johnson has played 25.0 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

25.0
MPG (L5)
13.0
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Keldon Johnson — points hit rate

Keldon Johnson has scored over 12.5 points in 53% of 165 career games.

o11.560%
o12.553%
o15.535%
o20.515%

Keldon Johnson — home vs away scoring

At home Keldon Johnson averages 14.7 points per game; on the road, 10.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

14.7
PPG at home
10.7
PPG on the road

Keldon Johnson — scoring by opponent

Keldon Johnson scores most against the CHI, averaging 19.5 points per game in that matchup.

19.5
CHI
19.0
MIL
18.0
WSH
17.7
HOU
17.6
DEN
17.1
MIN

Keldon Johnson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Keldon Johnson has averaged 14.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Aprvs TOR272390
9 Apr@ GS312182
8 Apr@ LAC221262
6 Apr@ POR21251
4 Aprvs CLE24743
1 Aprvs ORL18774
30 Marvs GS211932
29 Marvs BOS342363
27 Mar@ CLE2717100
25 Mar@ DET221053
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 5.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 7.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 6.5 Over -106 ✓ HIT
11 Jun 26 San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Points — — — Pending
11 Jun 26 San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 5.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.4% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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