Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 26.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 53%, edge +24.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
NBA

Jamal Murray

Denver Nuggets

+24.4% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 26.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+24.4% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
22.0 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.9% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +24.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points77.9%53.5%1.28+24.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) Under 26.5 Points (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to host the Minnesota Timberwolves, all eyes will be on Jamal Murray. While he's a dynamic scorer, the numbers suggest a different outcome tonight. Over his last five games, Murray has averaged just 23.6 points overall and an even lower 22.4 at home. Against the Timberwolves, he's had success in the past, averaging 27.6 points, but let's not forget that context matters. In recent matchups and with the game being at home, he's only managed 24.6 points on average. Plus, with a hit rate of 4/4 for unders in his last four home games, there's a compelling trend suggesting he may not eclipse that lofty 26.5 mark tonight. Given these metrics, targeting the under feels not only prudent but backed by a solid recent performance trajectory.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Jamal Murray — 2024-25 season averages

Over 79 games in the 2024-25 season, Jamal Murray averaged 21.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 37.0 minutes per game, shooting 46.9% from the field and 39.0% from three-point range.

21.6
PPG
4.1
RPG
5.9
APG
1.3
SPG
0.5
BPG
37.0
MPG
46.9%
FG%
39.0%
3P%

Jamal Murray — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jamal Murray has played 41.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

41.2
MPG (L5)
21.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jamal Murray — points hit rate

Jamal Murray has scored over 15.5 points in 53% of 401 career games.

o11.570%
o12.567%
o15.553%
o20.531%
o25.515%

Jamal Murray — home vs away scoring

At home Jamal Murray averages 21.2 points per game; on the road, 21.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

21.2
PPG at home
21.9
PPG on the road

Jamal Murray — scoring by opponent

Jamal Murray scores most against the PHX, averaging 24.6 points per game in that matchup.

24.6
PHX
24.4
UTAH
23.5
LAL
22.9
BOS
21.5
CLE
21.3
WSH

Jamal Murray — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jamal Murray has averaged 22.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ OKC422843
11 Mayvs OKC411745
9 Mayvs OKC482748
7 May@ OKC311441
5 May@ OKC442166
3 Mayvs LAC421652
1 May@ LAC442188
29 Aprvs LAC404357
26 Apr@ LAC421377
24 Apr@ LAC362304
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jamal Murray is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jamal Murray is Under 26.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.4% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.