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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 18.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 55%, edge +19.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:27AM UTC
NBA

DeMar DeRozan

Sacramento Kings

+19.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 18.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+19.5% Edge
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
23.0 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.2% · the book's price implies 54.6% · gap +19.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs74.2%54.6%1.35+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Kings head into a pivotal matchup against the Warriors, all eyes should be on DeMar DeRozan to go Over 18.5 points and rebounds. DeRozan has been a scoring machine lately, averaging 21.2 points and 2.6 rebounds over his last five games, with a striking 23.4 points per game on the road. When facing the Warriors, he has historically thrived, dropping an impressive 27.6 points on average in their recent encounters. Moreover, DeRozan's ability to rack up rebounds hasn't gone unnoticed, especially against Golden State, where he pulls down about 4.2 boards per game away from home. His recent form is formidable, hitting this mark in three of his last five games, and he's a perfect 3-for-3 on the road in that stretch. With an expected stat value nudging nearly 23, it's hard to see him not eclipsing this threshold. Trust DeRozan

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Pick History & Track Record

DeMar DeRozan — 2024-25 season averages

Over 78 games in the 2024-25 season, DeMar DeRozan averaged 22.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists in 36.0 minutes per game, shooting 47.7% from the field and 33.0% from three-point range.

22.3
PPG
3.9
RPG
4.4
APG
0.8
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.0
MPG
47.7%
FG%
33.0%
3P%

DeMar DeRozan — recent role

Across his last 5 games, DeMar DeRozan has played 37.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.6
MPG (L5)
23.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

DeMar DeRozan — points hit rate

DeMar DeRozan has scored over 20.5 points in 48% of 1073 career games.

o11.583%
o12.580%
o15.569%
o20.548%
o25.527%
o30.512%

DeMar DeRozan — home vs away scoring

At home DeMar DeRozan averages 20.0 points per game; on the road, 24.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.0
PPG at home
24.7
PPG on the road

DeMar DeRozan — scoring by opponent

DeMar DeRozan scores most against the MIN, averaging 28.4 points per game in that matchup.

28.4
MIN
26.6
ATL
25.5
MIL
25.5
ORL
25.4
SA
25.3
LAL

DeMar DeRozan — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, DeMar DeRozan has averaged 24.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
16 Aprvs DAL433372
13 Aprvs PHX28805
11 Aprvs LAC401638
9 Aprvs DEN402244
7 Apr@ DET373742
6 Apr@ CLE402847
4 Apr@ CHA272243
2 Apr@ WSH402978
31 Mar@ IND423138
29 Mar@ ORL292141
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeMar DeRozan is Over 18.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors on Wednesday 8 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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