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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brandon Ingram is Under 24.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 79%, implied 53%, edge +25.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
NBA

Brandon Ingram

Toronto Raptors

+25.6% Edge
🔥 8 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 24.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+25.6% Edge
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
19.9 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.5% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap +25.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points78.5%52.9%1.27+25.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brandon Ingram (Toronto Raptors) Under 24.5 Points (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Raptors gear up to host the Miami Heat, targeting Brandon Ingram for under 24.5 points makes a lot of sense. While Ingram has shown flashes of brilliance at home, averaging a solid 25 points in recent games, his production against the Heat has been notably subdued, with an average of just 16 points at home in their last matchup. This season, he's been held to 18.2 points against Miami overall, which suggests their defensive schemes have his number.Moreover, with an overall hit rate of 8 for 8 in his last games, the pressure could be mounting, making it harder for him to maintain that consistency. Given that his expected stat value hovers around 19.92, there's a compelling narrative here-one that leans heavily towards Ingram falling short of that 24.5 mark. Betting on the under feels like a smart play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Brandon Ingram — 2024-25 season averages

Over 18 games in the 2024-25 season, Brandon Ingram averaged 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists in 33.0 minutes per game, shooting 46.5% from the field and 37.4% from three-point range.

22.2
PPG
5.6
RPG
5.2
APG
0.9
SPG
0.6
BPG
33.0
MPG
46.5%
FG%
37.4%
3P%

Brandon Ingram — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Brandon Ingram has played 32.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

32.6
MPG (L5)
20.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Brandon Ingram — points hit rate

Brandon Ingram has scored over 15.5 points in 60% of 392 career games.

o11.577%
o12.573%
o15.560%
o20.539%
o25.521%

Brandon Ingram — home vs away scoring

At home Brandon Ingram averages 25.0 points per game; on the road, 17.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

25.0
PPG at home
17.9
PPG on the road

Brandon Ingram — scoring by opponent

Brandon Ingram scores most against the HOU, averaging 25.7 points per game in that matchup.

25.7
HOU
24.2
IND
24.1
TOR
23.6
PHX
23.4
UTAH
23.3
LAL

Brandon Ingram — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Brandon Ingram has averaged 20.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.7 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
7 Decvs OKC19513
5 Decvs PHX372973
22 Novvs GS361837
19 Nov@ DAL331754
16 Novvs LAL383248
15 Novvs DEN372997
13 Nov@ OKC351866
11 Novvs BKN352459
8 Nov@ ORL261155
6 Novvs CLE392055
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Brandon Ingram (Toronto Raptors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Brandon Ingram is currently on a 8-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Brandon Ingram is Under 24.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.6% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors on Thursday 9 April at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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