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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Anthony Edwards is Under 4.5 on Assists.
On Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 66%, implied 45%, edge +21.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
NBA

Anthony Edwards

Minnesota Timberwolves

+21.4% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Assists Under 4.5 +122 (2.22) · $100→$222
+21.4% Edge
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 2:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
3.7 Assists
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 66.5% · the book's price implies 45.0% · gap +21.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists66.5%45.0%1.50+21.4%

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AI Analysis

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Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) Under 4.5 Assists (+122)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming matchup against the Denver Nuggets, targeting Anthony Edwards for under 4.5 assists feels like a savvy play. Though he's been a dynamic force for the Timberwolves, recent trends suggest he may struggle to hit that mark. Averaging just four assists over his last five games, he's been under that threshold in three of those contests. Now, let's consider the context. Playing away from home against a stout Denver defense, Edwards faces a tougher landscape. Historically, he's averaged around 6 assists against the Nuggets, but that's a bit misleading given he's been on the road. In his last three away games, he's also hit that under every time. With an expected stat value of just 3.75 and an implied probability of 45% for going under, this bet feels solid. All signs point to a tight contest where he may not be facilitating as much, making this a compelling under play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Anthony Edwards — 2024-25 season averages

Over 88 games in the 2024-25 season, Anthony Edwards averaged 27.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists in 36.6 minutes per game, shooting 44.6% from the field and 39.2% from three-point range.

27.5
PPG
5.9
RPG
4.6
APG
1.2
SPG
0.6
BPG
36.6
MPG
44.6%
FG%
39.2%
3P%

Anthony Edwards — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Anthony Edwards has played 39.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

39.2
MPG (L5)
24.8
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Anthony Edwards — points hit rate

Anthony Edwards has scored over 20.5 points in 48% of 139 career games.

o11.583%
o12.579%
o15.568%
o20.548%
o25.524%

Anthony Edwards — home vs away scoring

At home Anthony Edwards averages 26.3 points per game; on the road, 28.6. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

26.3
PPG at home
28.6
PPG on the road

Anthony Edwards — scoring by opponent

Anthony Edwards scores most against the POR, averaging 27.6 points per game in that matchup.

27.6
POR
27.4
IND
27.2
HOU
27.0
UTAH
25.5
DEN
25.2
SAC

Anthony Edwards — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Anthony Edwards has averaged 28.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.2 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
12 May@ GS333045
10 May@ GS443644
8 Mayvs GS342095
6 Mayvs GS4223142
30 Apr@ LAL4315118
27 Aprvs LAL444396
25 Aprvs LAL422988
22 Apr@ LAL402560
19 Apr@ LAL352289
13 Aprvs UTAH404365
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Anthony Edwards is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Anthony Edwards is Under 4.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.4% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets on Tuesday 21 April at Ball Arena, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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