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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Over 15.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 66%, implied 51%, edge +15.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:22AM UTC
NBA

Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers

+15.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 15.5 -102 (1.98) · $100→$198
+15.2% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Mon 23 Mar, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
18.3 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 65.7% · the book's price implies 50.5% · gap +15.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs65.7%50.5%1.52+15.2%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-102)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pacers face off against the Magic, Aaron Nesmith is poised to deliver a standout performance, making the Over on his points and rebounds total of 15.5 a wise bet. Despite being the away team, Nesmith has been lighting it up, averaging 17.8 points in his last five road games. His ability to find the basket is evident, especially against the Magic, where he's put up an average of 12.6 points in recent matchups. But it's not just about scoring; he's also been a solid contributor on the boards, averaging over five rebounds against Orlando historically. With an expected stat value of 18.29, he's showing signs that he can exceed that 15.5 mark comfortably. Given that the Magic's defense can be vulnerable, especially at home, Nesmith has all the makings to clear this line and then some. Grab this opportunity before it's gone!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Aaron Nesmith — 2024-25 season averages

Over 55 games in the 2024-25 season, Aaron Nesmith averaged 12.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 25.8 minutes per game, shooting 50.9% from the field and 44.2% from three-point range.

12.5
PPG
4.4
RPG
1.3
APG
0.8
SPG
0.5
BPG
25.8
MPG
50.9%
FG%
44.2%
3P%

Aaron Nesmith — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Aaron Nesmith has played 29.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

29.0
MPG (L5)
14.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Aaron Nesmith — home vs away scoring

At home Aaron Nesmith averages 12.9 points per game; on the road, 12.1. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

12.9
PPG at home
12.1
PPG on the road

Aaron Nesmith — scoring by opponent

Aaron Nesmith scores most against the CLE, averaging 12.8 points per game in that matchup.

12.8
CLE
11.8
BOS
11.3
PHI
11.0
CHA
9.8
LAL
9.4
MIL

Aaron Nesmith — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Nesmith has averaged 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ CLE3713132
11 Mayvs CLE231214
9 Mayvs CLE27771
6 May@ CLE332341
4 May@ CLE251780
29 Aprvs MIL4119123
27 Apr@ MIL251450
25 Apr@ MIL271873
22 Aprvs MIL311622
19 Aprvs MIL27760
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists 2.5 Under -182 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers 2.5 Under -147 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts 21.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Rebs + Asts Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Over 15.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.2% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic on Monday 23 March at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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