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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lars Nootbaar is Over 1.5 on Batter - Runs Scored.
On Batter - Runs Scored, our numbers say this bet wins about 8 times in 100. For the numbers: calibrated probability 8%, implied 11%, edge -2.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Under 1.50 2Blanded 10 of the last 10
Under 2.50 hits runs rbislanded 7 of the last 10
Under 2.50 total baseslanded 7 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 10, 4:46AM UTC
MLB

Lars Nootbaar

STL

-2.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Runs Scored Over 1.5 +850 (9.50) · $100→$950
-2.9% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Wed 9 Sep, 11:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
8 in 100
Predicted
0.5 Batter - Runs Scored
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 7.6% · the book's price implies 10.5% · gap -2.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Runs Scored7.6%7.8%10.5%10.52-2.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Batter - Runs Scored (+850)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Lars Nootbaar has been a bit quiet lately, averaging just 0.3 hits and 0.7 strikeouts per game over his last three games. However, he faces the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have struggled against left-handed pitchers. With Nootbaar playing at home, he has a chance to step up and score runs. While the Kansas City Royals have not been at their best, they've won 3 of their last 10 games and scored about 0.6 runs fewer than their opponents recently. Nootbaar going over 1.5 runs scored could be tough, especially since he hasn't been hitting consistently. Still, at +850 odds, it's worth a shot for a player who can turn things around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Lars Nootbaar is averaging 0.6 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.8 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.6
Hits
0.2
HR
0.8
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.6
Walks
0.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis

Lars Nootbaar has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 70% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.570%
o1.520%
o2.510%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Lars Nootbaar is averaging 0.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.6 in away games, including his recent form against CHC.

0.6
Hits · Overall
0.6
Hits · Away
0.4
Hits · vs CHC
0.2
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Away
0.0
HR · vs CHC
Quick answers:How many home runs does Lars Nootbaar hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - RBIs 0.5 Under -286 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Doubles 0.5 Under -476 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Singles — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Walks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lars Nootbaar (STL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lars Nootbaar is Over 1.5 on Batter - Runs Scored. The model identifies a slight edge of -2.9% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals on Wednesday 9 September at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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