Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jorge Mateo is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On Batter - Stolen Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 71%, implied 75%, edge +14.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Over 0.50 hits runs rbislanded 9 of the last 10
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:50AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases
Under 0.5
-294 (1.34) · $100→$134
+14.1% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays
@
Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Tue 8 Sep, 11:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
0.0 Batter - Stolen Bases
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 88.7% · the book's price implies 74.6% · gap +14.1%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Batter - Stolen Bases | 88.7% | 71.0% | 74.6% | 1.48 | +14.1% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 4/10 |
See his full recent form
Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.
Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime
Jorge Mateo (BAL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-294)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Atlanta Braves play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jorge Mateo (BAL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-294). That is a Stolen Bases bet. It was priced at -294 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Overall Hit Rate (38 picks)
55.3%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Recent form (last 5 games)
Jorge Mateo is averaging 0.2 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.
Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis
Jorge Mateo has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 90% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o0.590%
o1.550%
o2.530%
o3.510%
o4.510%
Home / away and opponent splits
Jorge Mateo is averaging 0.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.2 in home games, including his recent form against NYY.
Jorge Mateo (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 55.3% on tracked Jorge Mateo picks. The latest model pick for Jorge Mateo is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.1% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves on Tuesday 8 September at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.