Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Graham Pauley is Over 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored.
On Batter - Runs Scored, our numbers say this bet wins about 33 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 33%, implied 35%, edge +8.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Under 1.50 hits runs rbislanded 7 of the last 10
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:39AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Runs Scored
Over 0.5
+187 (2.87) · $100→$287
+8.2% Edge
New York Mets
@
Miami Marlins
loanDepot Park, Miami, Florida · Indoor
Wed 9 Sep, 10:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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How often this wins
43 in 100
Predicted
0.9 Batter - Runs Scored
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 43.0% · the book's price implies 34.8% · gap +8.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Batter - Runs Scored | 43.0% | 32.8% | 34.8% | 2.97 | +8.2% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 1/3 |
| Last 10 games | 1/3 |
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Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+187)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Miami Marlins play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+187). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at +187 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Recent form (last 5 games)
Graham Pauley is averaging 1.2 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.4 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.
Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis
Graham Pauley has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 33% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o0.533%
o1.533%
o2.533%
o3.50%
o4.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Graham Pauley is averaging 1.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.0 in away games, including his recent form against PHI.
Graham Pauley is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Graham Pauley is Over 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Miami Marlins on Wednesday 9 September at loanDepot Park, Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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