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The latest Bet Better model pick for Andrew Alvarez is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 59%, edge +3.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Under 4.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Under 3.50 SOlanded 9 of the last 10
Under 2.50 ERlanded 8 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 10, 5:29AM UTC
MLB

Andrew Alvarez

WSN

+3.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 2.5 -143 (1.70) · $100→$170
+3.6% Edge
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California · Outdoor
Mon 7 Sep, 2:10AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts unders: 77 of 124 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
62 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 62.4% · the book's price implies 58.8% · gap +3.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs62.4%54.1%58.8%1.88+3.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/7

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AI Analysis

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals: Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 Pitcher - Earned Runs (-143)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Dodgers have been strong at home, but the Nationals can hit lefties pretty well, having a solid performance against them this season. Andrew Alvarez is starting for the Dodgers, and he has a good chance to keep the runs down. He'll be facing a lineup that, while capable, has been inconsistent overall. Betting on Alvarez to allow under 2.5 earned runs seems like a smart choice. The risk here is that if the Nationals get hot, they could easily score more than expected. Still, our numbers suggest Alvarez has the skills to contain them and keep the game tight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Andrew Alvarez has gone over 1.5 SO in 80% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.580%
o2.510%
o3.530%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Sep 26 Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -143 ✗ MISS
07 Sep 26 Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers Pitcher - Hits Allowed 4.5 Under -123 ✓ HIT
30 Aug 26 Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -159 ✓ HIT
25 Aug 26 Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Walks — — — Pending
25 Aug 26 Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending
25 Aug 26 Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Andrew Alvarez (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Andrew Alvarez is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday 7 September at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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