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The latest Bet Better model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 55%, implied 70%, edge +4.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Willem Duursma

West Coast Eagles

+4.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+4.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
16.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.7% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +4.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.7%54.5%70.4%1.83+4.3%

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AI Analysis

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Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) Over 13.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Willem Duursma shines as a standout choice for the 'Disposals Over' market against Hawthorn. Playing at the familiar Optus Stadium for the West Coast Eagles, Duursma's recent form showcases his consistent performance, especially in his last five home games where he's been a midfield maestro. Averaging 18 disposals per home game, with a solid contested possession rate and efficient ball use, Duursma has been a reliable ball distributor. With a current hit streak and demonstrated ability to surpass the 13.5 line comfortably, Duursma presents a compelling case for hitting the over on disposals. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions as he steers the Eagles towards victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Willem Duursma - AFL Disposals market.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Willem Duursma - AFL Goals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 13.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
16 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.3% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 23 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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