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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 80%, implied 89%, edge +1.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne

+1.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+1.8% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
14.8 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 91.1% · the book's price implies 89.3% · gap +1.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks91.1%80.0%89.3%1.25+1.8%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Tom Sparrow and his knack for finding the footy. When the Melbourne Demons host the Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG, Sparrow is primed to light it up. The stats paint a telling story: with a model prediction of 14.8 kicks and a steady hit rate, the Over 9.5 line seems like a gift from the footy gods. Sparrow's ability to read the play and get involved is undeniable, making him a key cog in the Demons' midfield machinery. Playing on home turf only adds fuel to his fire, as he thrives in front of the passionate Melbourne faithful. So, when you're eyeing that 'Player Kicks Over' market, trust in Sparrow to not just meet but exceed expectations. With the odds in our favor and the numbers on his side, backing Tom Sparrow to surpass 9.5 kicks is as solid a bet as splitting the middle from 50 meters out.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Sparrow averaged 14.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.5
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Tom Sparrow recorded 4 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS4000
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide21043
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs18234
21 Jul 24Fremantle15043
13 Jul 24Essendon12042
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12073
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions15013
22 Jun 24North Melbourne16114
10 Jun 24Collingwood13044
2 Jun 24Fremantle16060
Quick answers:How many disposals does Tom Sparrow average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Handballs 7.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 19.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 18.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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