Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Mitchell is Under 24.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 56%, edge +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL
Tom Mitchell
Collingwood
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Under 24.5
-125 (1.80) · $100→$180
+18.3% Edge
Collingwood Magpies
@
Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 11 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
74 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 73.8% · the book's price implies 55.6% · gap +18.3%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 73.8% | — | 55.6% | 1.35 | +18.3% |
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Tom Mitchell (Collingwood) Under 24.5 Disposals (-125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Tom Mitchell's recent away game averages fall below the set line of 24.5 disposals, indicating potential difficulty in reaching this mark. Despite his strong overall performance, facing Gold Coast Suns could limit his disposals based on his lower past averages against this opponent. Mitchell's L5 vs. Gold Coast Suns disposals average of 29.5 is significantly higher than the model's prediction of 21.3. With a 18.3% edge and Mitchell's recent struggles against this opponent, betting on him to go under 24.5 disposals seems a strategic choice.
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Season averages (2024)
Tom Mitchell averaged 20.0 disposals, 0.2 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Apr 24 vs Essendon), Tom Mitchell recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Apr 24 | Essendon | 19 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 20 Apr 24 | Port Adelaide | 21 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 Apr 24 | Hawthorn | 30 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 28 Mar 24 | Brisbane Lions | 24 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 21 Mar 24 | St Kilda | 17 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 Mar 24 | GWS GIANTS | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 30 Sep 23 | Brisbane Lions | 24 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 22 Sep 23 | GWS GIANTS | 24 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 Sep 23 | Melbourne | 21 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 25 Aug 23 | Essendon | 33 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Tom Mitchell (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Mitchell is Under 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns on Friday 11 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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