Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 98 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 98%, implied 85%, edge +12.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:37AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-556 (1.18) · $100→$118
+12.8% Edge
St Kilda Saints
@
Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 3:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 17°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
98 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 97.6% · the book's price implies 84.7% · gap +12.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 97.6% | — | 84.7% | 1.02 | +12.8% |
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Tom Lynch (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-556)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Tom Lynch is a strong candidate to score anytime against St Kilda based on his recent performance trends. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last 5 home games and a consistent 51.3% goal accuracy, Lynch has been a reliable finisher. His involvement in the Tigers' forward play is evident with 4.8 score involvements per game. Against St Kilda, he has maintained an average of 1 goal per game in their last encounters. With an average of 3.6 shots at goal and 2.2 inside 50s in his recent home games, Lynch is often in scoring positions. Given his solid form and the model's prediction of 2 goals, Lynch is poised to surpass the over 0.5 goal line set by sportsbet.
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Season averages (2024)
Tom Lynch averaged 8.0 disposals, 1.5 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (15 Jun 24 vs Hawthorn), Tom Lynch recorded 4 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 15 Jun 24 | Hawthorn | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | Sydney Swans | 11 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Mar 24 | Port Adelaide | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Mar 24 | Carlton | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 8 Apr 23 | Western Bulldogs | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 31 Mar 23 | Collingwood | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 25 Mar 23 | Adelaide Crows | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Mar 23 | Carlton | 10 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Tom Lynch (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.8% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 9 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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