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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 60%, edge +11.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Tim Kelly

West Coast Eagles

+11.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -149 (1.67) · $100→$167
+11.7% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
24.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.6% · the book's price implies 59.9% · gap +11.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.6%—59.9%1.40+11.7%

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AI Analysis

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Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 21.5 Disposals (-149)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Tim Kelly. The man's been a midfield maestro lately, with his last five away games showing an average of 22.4 disposals. Facing off against the Dockers, he's proven he can step it up even more, averaging 24.5 disposals against them on their turf. Tim's been a reliable playmaker, boasting a solid 67.2% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial metres. With his recent form and history against Fremantle, it's no surprise the model predicts him to snag 24.3 disposals. Plus, with an impressive hit streak of 2 in away games and hitting his numbers 75% of the time, backing Tim Kelly to surpass 21.5 disposals seems like a savvy move. It's not gambling when you've got stats like these backing you up!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tim Kelly averaged 23.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

23.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.8
Marks
4.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Tim Kelly recorded 25 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Geelong Cats25033
18 Aug 24Carlton24054
10 Aug 24North Melbourne19019
2 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS31031
27 Jul 24Fremantle32106
20 Jul 24St Kilda24054
14 Jul 24Brisbane Lions29123
7 Jul 24Melbourne23034
30 Jun 24Hawthorn15017
26 May 24Adelaide Crows23035
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 21.5 Over -149 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 20.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.7% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 24 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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