Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 70%, edge +3.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 19.5
-238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+3.1% Edge
Carlton Blues
@
Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 24 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
74 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 73.6% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +3.1%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 73.6% | — | 70.4% | 1.36 | +3.1% |
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Sam Docherty (Carlton) Over 19.5 Disposals (-238)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sam Docherty is poised to shine in this matchup based on his recent form and historical performance against Hawthorn. With a model prediction of 22.7 disposals, Docherty's L5 stats indicate he comfortably averages 18.4 disposals in away games, surpassing the set line of 19.5. His consistency in contested possessions (3.6) and kicks (12.8) further support this bet. Additionally, his strong disposal efficiency (67.7%) and ability to gain meters (348) make him a valuable asset likely to exceed the line. Despite a modest hit rate, Docherty's current form and matchup history against Hawthorn suggest a high probability of hitting this over.
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Recent game log
In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Docherty recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 7 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 16 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 Mar 24 | Brisbane Lions | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 23 Sep 23 | Brisbane Lions | 19 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 Sep 23 | Melbourne | 19 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 Sep 23 | Sydney Swans | 21 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 Aug 23 | Gold Coast SUNS | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 Aug 23 | Melbourne | 22 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 Aug 23 | St Kilda | 26 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 28 Jul 23 | Collingwood | 18 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 22 Jul 23 | West Coast Eagles | 29 | 0 | 7 | 8 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Sam Docherty (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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