Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Riley Hardeman is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 80%, edge +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Riley Hardeman

North Melbourne

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+2.0% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 3 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
14.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.0% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +2.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.0%80.0%1.22+2.0%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Riley Hardeman (North Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Riley Hardeman is poised to shine with a predicted 14.1 disposals, a 2.0% edge. In his last 5 home games, he's averaged 13.4 disposals, comfortably exceeding the 9.5 line. With consistent contested possessions (3.6) and efficient disposal rates (79.9%), Hardeman's 9.4 kicks and 4.4 handballs per game highlight his involvement. His recent 3.8 intercepts and 340.2 metres gained further indicate a strong presence on the field. Despite a slight uptick in turnovers (2.8), his overall performance favors surpassing the line. Hardeman's reliability, with an impressive 8/9 hit rate, and a consistent 5/6 hit rate at home, make him a favorable bet for exceeding 9.5 disposals against the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Riley Hardeman averaged 10.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 3 games in 2024.

10.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.0
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (11 May 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Riley Hardeman recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
11 May 24Gold Coast SUNS11033
4 May 24St Kilda7021
27 Apr 24Adelaide Crows12042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Riley Hardeman (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Riley Hardeman is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Thursday 3 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.