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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Balta is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 63%, edge +8.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Noah Balta

Richmond

+8.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -167 (1.60) · $100→$160
+8.9% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
0.9 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.4% · the book's price implies 62.5% · gap +8.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.4%62.5%1.40+8.9%

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AI Analysis

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Noah Balta (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Noah Balta, the rising star for the Richmond Tigers, is poised to make a big impact against the Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG. Balta has been in scintillating form, averaging 1 goal in his last 5 home games and showing a keen eye for goal with a 30.0% goal accuracy. His ability to get involved in the attacking plays is evident, averaging 5.2 score involvements and 3.2 inside 50s at home. With an average of 2.6 shots at goal, Balta consistently puts himself in scoring positions to snag a goal. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he's scored 0.4 goals on average in their last encounters, the stage is set for Balta to split the middle and deliver for punters looking to back him to score over 0.5 goals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Noah Balta averaged 12.3 disposals, 0.6 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

12.3
Disposals
0.6
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Noah Balta recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS11051
18 Aug 24Hawthorn5230
11 Aug 24St Kilda17081
3 Aug 24North Melbourne7050
28 Jul 24Collingwood9040
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide13090
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS11030
6 Jul 24Fremantle10051
30 Jun 24Carlton8351
15 Jun 24Hawthorn14091
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 10.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals Pending
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals Pending

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About This Player

Noah Balta (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Balta is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.9% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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