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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ned Long is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 65%, implied 75%, edge +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Ned Long

Collingwood

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+2.0% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
2.9 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.2% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +2.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks77.2%64.8%75.2%1.54+2.0%

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AI Analysis

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Ned Long (Collingwood) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to marking prowess, Ned Long is a force to be reckoned with. In his last five away games, he's been averaging 2 marks, consistently showcasing his aerial dominance. Facing off against the Western Bulldogs, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 2.5 marks per game, Long is poised to excel. Moreover, his recent form against all opponents has been solid, averaging 1.4 marks overall in his last five outings. This consistent performance, coupled with his ability to read the play and take crucial intercept marks, makes him a prime candidate to snag more than 1.5 marks in this upcoming clash. With the game set to unfold at the iconic MCG in Melbourne, the stage is set for Ned Long to elevate his marking game and contribute significantly to Collingwood's efforts. Betting on Long to go over 1.5 marks is a smart move given his track record and the opportunities likely to arise in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ned Long averaged 8.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

8.4
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.4
Marks
5.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Ned Long recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Brisbane Lions5014
9 Aug 24Sydney Swans13116
3 Aug 24Carlton7015
28 Jul 24Richmond81310
20 Jul 24Hawthorn8015
12 Jul 24Geelong Cats9025
5 Jul 24Essendon9012
20 Aug 23Melbourne12021
22 Jul 23Richmond3002
23 Apr 23Adelaide Crows9017
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks — — — Pending
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ned Long (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ned Long is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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