Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke McDonald is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 64%, edge +9.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:20AM UTC
AFL

Luke McDonald

North Melbourne

+9.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+9.9% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 15 Mar, 2:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
16.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.0% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +9.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.0%—64.1%1.35+9.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Luke McDonald (North Melbourne) Over 13.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Luke McDonald and his midfield prowess for the upcoming clash between North Melbourne and Port Adelaide. McDonald, a consistent ball magnet, has been making waves with an average of 18 disposals per game over the last five home matches. Facing Port Adelaide, a team he historically averages 16.7 disposals against, the stage is set for him to shine. In recent games, McDonald has showcased solid numbers in contested possessions, intercepts, and kicking efficiency, indicating his ability to impact the game across the ground. With an impressive mean of 11 kicks per game at home and a knack for gaining crucial metres, he's poised to surpass the 13.5 disposals line comfortably. McDonald's current form and historical performance against the Power make him a strong bet to rack up the possessions and help you snag a win in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke McDonald averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.8 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.8
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Luke McDonald recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Hawthorn12033
18 Aug 24Western Bulldogs17031
10 Aug 24West Coast Eagles15060
3 Aug 24Richmond190101
27 Jul 24Geelong Cats18074
21 Jul 24Carlton11040
13 Jul 24Sydney Swans15041
6 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS18042
29 Jun 24Western Bulldogs12031
22 Jun 24Melbourne11036
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Luke McDonald (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke McDonald is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.9% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 15 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.