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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jesse Hogan is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 93%, implied 86%, edge +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:19AM UTC
AFL

Jesse Hogan

GWS GIANTS

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -625 (1.16) · $100→$116
+6.7% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
1.7 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 92.9% · the book's price implies 86.2% · gap +6.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.9%—86.2%1.08+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jesse Hogan snagging goals, the numbers paint a promising picture. Over his last five away games, he's been averaging 1.4 goals per match, showcasing a solid scoring touch. With an impressive 39.7% goal accuracy rate and an average of 3 shots at goal in those games, Hogan's ability to find the big sticks is evident. His recent form against St Kilda has seen him average 2 goals in their matchups, demonstrating his knack for delivering against this opponent. Moreover, Hogan's involvement in the scoring plays has been consistent, with 5.8 score involvements per game on average. With a streak of 3 consecutive games hitting the back of the net, he's in a confident phase. Considering his recent performances and track record against St Kilda, backing Hogan to kick over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium looks like a solid bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jesse Hogan averaged 12.2 disposals, 3.1 goals and 6.5 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

12.2
Disposals
3.1
Goals
6.5
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Jesse Hogan recorded 13 disposals and 5 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions13583
7 Sep 24Sydney Swans12380
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs12262
17 Aug 24Fremantle15691
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions16361
4 Aug 24Hawthorn175111
27 Jul 24Melbourne11460
20 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS10463
14 Jul 24Richmond10440
6 Jul 24Carlton15595
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jesse Hogan is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 14 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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